Draft Day Decisions
 Derrick Henry vs Miles Sanders


[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Mid/Late 1st Round

We’ve all been there. You’re at your fantasy football draft and on the clock. There are a few players ripe for the picking but you can’t make up your mind. Which is the best fit for your team? Will Player A outperform Player B? Meanwhile, your buddies are chirping you to make the pick and now you start to panic because there’s only a few seconds left on the timer before your pick gets made for you. It doesn’t matter how much time you’ve put into researching the draft board or mocking out all your options, the draft board never goes the way you’ve planned. That is where we step in. This series will take a look at expected ADP and pit players against each other that you may have to make the tough decision on, hopefully helping you draft a championship squad!

Derrick Henry- Average Draft Position (ADP) 7 (RB6) vs. Miles Sanders ADP 13 (RB7)
Ole Reliable or the upstart young guy? That is the decision you are facing in the middle/back end of fantasy football drafts. After a slow start to his career, Derrick Henry has taken the NFL by storm and become one of the more consistent RB1s over the past season and a half. Meanwhile, Miles Sanders looks to be the one to buck the trend in Philadelphia of a Running Back By Committee (RBBC) with his dynamic skill set as a receiver out of the backfield.

Even though both players are being drafted in the same areas of drafts, their skill set couldn’t be different. Henry is an overpowering RB who will get 300+ touches, with only about 10-15 of those being receptions and is basically unstoppable on the goal line. He is the 2020 version of the hardnosed running backs from the 80’s and 90s’. On the other hands, Miles Sanders has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, so one can expect him to reel in about 50 passes, and he should see 225-250 rushing attempts. If all goes according to plan, he will flirt with 1600+ Yards from scrimmage (YFS) and double digits TDs. The one concern with Sanders is he is currently fighting a lower body injury which may scare fantasy owners off. However, all reports are that he will be ready for Week 1 and should be one of the main pieces of an explosive Eagles offense.

So, the million dollar question…who are you drafting in your fantasy football draft?
Recently, I was on the clock at pick 10 in a PPR and .25 Point Per Carry (PPC) league. I expected Derrick Henry to go anywhere between picks 6-8, so I was planning on taking Sanders with my pick. Fortunately for me, Henry slid and was there for the taking at 10. Seeing that this was a PPC league, I took Henry and Sanders went right after me at 11. Take the .25 PPC out of the equations, was this the right pick? I think so and here is why.

In 2019 Derrick Henry scored a TD in 10 out of 14 games played during the 15 game fantasy football season (Weeks 1-16 with 1 bye). To me, that is one of the most important stats to look at with your first round pick. As great as it is to get a guy who is active out of the backfield, knowing there is a 70+% chance you’re guaranteed a floor of 6 points for that TD along with 15-20 carries that will yield 5 Yards Per Carry (YPC) and you have another 10 points from rushing yards. So now we are looking at ~16 fantasy points more often that not each week with the possibility that Henry will break out and have 150+ rushing yards with multiple TDs. With such a high floor and opportunity for a high ceiling as well, Derrick Henry is one of the safest picks in the first round.

Now if you take Miles Sanders in the middle/late 1st round over Derrick Henry, I’m not going to crucify you for it. Sanders looks like he is going to lead the wave of young running backs and be a first round fantasy football pick for the next 3-5 years. Like Henry 2 years ago, Sanders’ rookie cards and autographs are starting to take off in value. Before he puts up gaudy numbers in 2020, I suggest grabbing his cards before the start to take off![/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]